Kentucky Derby 135

Today is my absolute favorite day of the year, Kentucky Derby day. Unfortunately, due to our financial situation, we do not have cable, and therefore I am unable to watch any of the daily coverage. My usual routine on this day is to wake up at the crack of dawn, watch ESPN's coverage nonstop, then switch over to the main channel for the race. Instead, I'm doing all my research on the web and trying to decide who to pick from there. Its quite frustrating. On the other hand, though, it may be better in the long run, because my choice will not be inspired by a sob story or my weakness for the underdog. Today, my choice will be strictly strategic and knowledge based. 

... Watch me lose. Eh, whatever. 

Amanda, Rob, Drew, and I are going to Victoryland Casino in Shorter, AL for the race. If you can't watch it at home, might as well watch it from a live simulcast with live betting, right? Absolutely. 

As of now, my picks are leaning towards:

Win: Fresian Fire -- won the Louisiana Derby convincingly over a sloppy track, with dirt in his face. The mud didn't bother him, and he won it running away from the pack. The Churchill Downs track today is very sloppy, and will definitely be a huge factor in the outcome of the race. Also, his trainer is Larry Jones, who trained Eight Belles and Hard Spun (the last two 2nd place Derby finishers), so I think he is due for a win.

Place: General Quarters -- OK, so maybe my weakness for the underdog is still influencing me. I love this horse. The derby tends to favor the overlooked horses, and I think General Quarters will be that one that was overlooked. He is hard to ignore. And to top it all off, his trainer's story will melt anyone's heart.

Still choosing my Show to finish out the Trifecta... I was really rooting towards I Want Revenge and/or Quality Road, but they are both out due to injury. Ugh. Dunkirk looks VERY good and I'm a sucker for grays, but I can't get over his lack of experience. A lot of people are talking about Pioneer of the Nile and Papa Clem, but neither of them are really catching my eye. Desert Party looks promising, but I only root for American horses in an American race. 

Amanda just told me she is picking Chocolate Candy because she likes his name. I'm starting to think that is a very smart and much less stressful betting strategy.

Screw statistics. I'm rooting for the pretty horse. <3