Derby 135 Recap

OK, so obviously I failed miserably at my choices for the Kentucky Derby. I have to admit, Mine That Bird's victory was unbelievable, the second biggest Derby upset in history (last one was Donerail in 1913). He was second to last throughout the entire race, then suddenly he was in front and no one even knew who he was, not even the announcer. Although I am impressed by the run, I think it will be Mine That Bird's last show. I don't have high hopes for a Preakness win, and especially not the Belmont. The other more talented horses in the field should have better trips the next time out, and will blow past him.

This commentary and recap of the race says it best:

Scully's Derby Recap

posted by James Scully on May 03, 2009

Double Eagle Ranch and Bueno Suerte Equine's MINE THAT BIRD (Birdstone), a New Mexico-based gelding who lost his first two starts this year in the Borderland Derby and Sunland Derby, rallied from last to win the 135th running of the Kentucky Derby (G1). And it wasn't even close.

The top Kentucky Derby jockey this century, Calvin Borel, got to the rail after the break and stuck -- nobody saves ground better than the Cajun. Borel knew the inside was best and was in no hurry after being squeezed at the start, and Mine That Bird dropped out of it early on, trailing as much as six lengths behind the next-to-place runner. He entered the far turn with a lot of ground to make up, but the Kentucky-bred kicked it in like he was shot out of a rocket.

Mine That Bird was the only horse to finish strongly, registering a 113 BRIS Late Pace number, and it was really something to see Borel work his magic. He skillfully negotiated Mine That Bird around a rival approaching the top of the stretch and then quickly darted back to the rail, rapidly reeling the leaders in with every stride, but there didn't appear to be any place to go nearing the quarter-pole, with pacesetter JOIN IN THE DANCE (Sky Mesa) racing along the inside. Borel has no fear, though, and squeezed the diminutive Mine That Bird through tight quarters, skimming the rail in classic Borel style.

The race was over in the blink of an eye as Mine That Bird kicked clear, and the Canadian champion earned an outstanding 110 Speed figure for the 6 3/4-length decision. His final time of 2:02.66 is good.

Borel won his second Derby in the last three years, and he finished third in 2008. He captured Friday's Kentucky Oaks (G1) by 20 1/4 lengths with Rachel Alexandra (Medaglia d'Oro). The 42-year-old journeyman was one of the weekend's biggest stars.

There were troubled trips to go around. FRIESAN FIRE (A.P. Indy) grabbed a quarter and was bleeding after being hit hard out of the gate, essentially just galloping home under Gabriel Saez. DUNKIRK (Unbridled's Song) stumbled a couple of jumps after the break, but that wasn't as much of a factor as Edgar Prado's guidance -- he was rushing the gray colt forward like he was aboard a front runner and got his mount slammed around for no reason approaching the first turn. Prado could have taken a lesson from Borel.

Mine That Bird closed from far back, but the front runners still ran well. Second-placer PIONEEROF THE NILE (Empire Maker) enjoyed a terrific trip under Garrett Gomez, closely tracking Join in the Dance from the start, and looked like a winner approaching the stretch. Fourth-placer PAPA CLEM (Smart Strike) was forwardly placed, stalking in fourth most of the way with Rafael Bejarano, and just missed third by a head. Join in the Dance turned in a respectable effort, much better than expected from the maiden winner, and led the way into the stretch. He weakened only to seventh.

MUSKET MAN (Yonaguska) was farther back during the early stages following a bad start but still raced within striking range under Eibar Coa. They took the overland route to reach contention turning for home and wound up only a nose back of Pioneerof the Nile in third. Bred to be a six-furlong specialist, Musket Man is as hard-hitting as they come.

The defections of Quality Road (Elusive Quality) and I Want Revenge (Stephen Got Even) hurt the depth of the field, and the Derby was held over a sloppy track. Most people will label Mine That Bird's victory as a complete fluke, an impossible winner who will be up the track two weeks later in the Preakness S. (G1). But that's horse racing; 50-1 upsets happen. Mine That Bird was the best horse on Saturday, and I give credit to Chip Woolley for a great training performance -- he had the former $9,500 yearling ready for the race of his life.

If anyone questions the impact the jockey's ride has on a race, this would be the perfect thing to shut them up. Good ride vs. Bad ride. 

This year, I'm much more excited about the Acorn Stakes. The Kentucky Oaks winner Rachel Alexandra (now known as "Alexandra the Great") is outstanding, and I am still in awe at her victory. She has a very big future ahead of her. She is the definition of elegance. Her victory was effortless. Watching this race is like watching Ruffian... and for me to say that is HUGE, because up until now I thought nothing compared to Ruffian. 

To those that have not seen this: 

Drew, Amanda, Rob, and I went to Victoryland casino to watch the race. I absolutely loved it, but I don't think the others were quite into the excitement. I taught them how to place bets, even though it ended up just costing us money with no return. Drew wanted to bet on a 50-1 horse, so the payoff would be huge if by chance it won. Unfortunately, he picked the WRONG 50-1 horse. He put $10 down on Flying Private, who finished dead last. If he had picked Mine That Bird, they payback would have been $1032.00. My pick, Friesan Fire, finished 19th... Thats by far the worst I have ever done. To his credit, though, he had a horrible trip and just finished the race at a gallop. He had already lost at the beginning of the race. The Preakness may be better for him, if he runs. Dunkirk also had a really bad trip, and I think he will do wonderfully in the Preakness with the shorter distance. General Quarters was my Place pick, and he finished 12th. 

Overall, I've come to the conclusion that as soon as I bet on a horse it is doomed. Next year, I think I'll bet for the horses I don't like. Someday, I will find a strategy that works.

However interesting it was not, that is my derby recap. I'm going to post another blog in a bit with the experiences of the rest of our night.

Hope everyone had a wonderful Derby Day... and did better than me with betting!